CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-12-06T05:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-12-06T05:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18459/-1
CME Note: Partial halo visible in the S in SOHO LASCO/C2; no STEREO A imagery available. Associated with a slow filament eruption centered near S50W10, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-12-06T01:00Z. Slow eruption that takes quite a long time between the eruption in SDO FOV and the CME appearing in the C2 FOV. Weak combined arrival signature with the CME with ID 2021-12-05T14:36:00-CME-001. Gradual increase in B_total, peaking at 9.95nT at 2021-12-11T03:27Z, increases also seen in density, temperature, and briefly in the solar wind speed (peaking at 337km/s).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-10T13:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-11T15:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18461/1 Model Inputs: 2021-12-06T05:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-41.0, Speed=204.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2021-12-06T23:23Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-12-11T15:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=3 Other Location(s) Impact: Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-12-11T15:00Z STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-12-11T17:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211206_232300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 96.37 hour(s)
Difference: -25.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-12-06T13:05Z
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